When and How to Bet the Underdog

Just like horese race betting, basketball betting provides point spread betting, as well as money line betting. When betting on basketball using the point spread, the underdog team is spotted a certain number of points. Money line betting requires one team to beat the other straight up.

As an example of each type of betting line, suppose the Cleveland Cavaliers are playing at home against the Utah Jazz. The Cavs might be inclined to spot the Jazz several points, as they are at home and are the better team. Let’s suppose the Cavs are favored by 12 points in this match. Additionally, the money line reads Cavs -850, Jazz +550. We know that we would need to wager $850 on the Cavs to win $100 if we bet the favorites, while a $100 bet on the Jazz would pay $550 if the Jazz pull off the upset.

In instances such as this, we observe the Jazz are receiving a substantial number of points in their away match through the point spread. Additionally, we know that a $100 bet will pay out 5.5 times the money we wager if we bet the money line. If we are determined that we are betting on the Jazz in this match, which should we bet?

When betting the underdog at sportsbook.com on the road with a point spread greater than twelve, our expected ROI using the money line is quite negative. In fact, the road dog who is an underdog to this level rarely, if ever wins straight up. However, when playing the point spread and taking the road dog and the twelve points, the underdog beats the spread over half the time. This means the underdog rarely wins the actual match up, however they typically lose by less than twelve points.

Thus, if one feels they have to bet the road dog, take the twelve points. In fact, over the past three years, the underdog on the road who was spotted eight points or more has beat the spread more than 50% of the time, while losing the actual straight up match more than eighty percent of the time.

When betting the underdog on the road, if the underdog receives six or more points, the correct bet is the dog with points. If the underdog is getting less than six points, the bettor is best served taking the money line. By betting road underdogs in this manner, a bettor can be far more efficient and profitable when betting the road dog in basketball.