NCAA: The Jayhawks for real?

Blue Ribbon magazine, if you’ve ever heard of it, recently came out with it’s Top 25 for the upcoming NCAA basketball betting season. There are a few surprising in selection and rankings, but mostly what you’d expect, including the Jayhawks at the top of the list. The futures on Kansas currently have them at 4:1 to win the championship, which is incredibly low for any team in college basketball as far as I’m concerned. This is a sport where anything can happen (including fights with your football squad) and a playoff format that favors the Cinderella. One and out – that’s a lot of stock to put into one team.

Nevertheless, they should be the consensus No. 1, even after the recent spat. The team is too experienced, deep and flush with talent to put them below anyone else. Sheron Collins and Cole Aldrich are on also on everyone’s pre-season All-American teams. The severity of Tyshawn Taylor’s injury (dislocated left thumb) is still a bit of a question mark, but it doesn’t appear to be serious enough to greatly affect the depth of the team. That’ll be a wait-and-see situation for a few weeks.

The Jayhawks will face a few tough challenges in the Big 12, but should have a strong enough record to come through in the No. 1 seed for the conference tournament, and put themselves in position to be a No. 1 heading into the NCAA tournament. Texas will be their biggest roadblock, but if Kansas is clicking, the disparity between them and even the other teams in the national top 5 rankings will be noticeable. Picking them as your winner in a pool and putting $500 down on them to win, however, are two totally different things. I’ll be honest, the low odds scare me. If it were 7:1, I’d be much more apt to endorse a hefty bet on them hedge by smaller amounts on MSU and Texas (sorry UNC, not this year).

Speaking of those teams, the NCAA basketball odds futures on MSU is 13:1, and Texas it’s 12:1. Others close are UCLA, Alabama, Georgetown and West Virginia all at 15:1. Syracuse is at 13:1 and UNC is 8:1. Louisville is 12:1 and Kentucky is at an eye-popping 5:1 (stay away from that bet). Duke’s always in it at 10:1. The field isat 75:1, but that’s just throwing your money away – this isn’t NASCAR.

Here’s what makes sense to me. A $300 bet on Kansas, $200 on MSU and Texas. Then $50 on 4 other top 20 teams of your pick. If Kansas wins, you still make $300. If another team wins in your group, you’ll make multiples of that, at least 3-4 times if it’s MSU or Texas. Yes, it’s a safer plan than just picking one team, but it’s the smarter play.